Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.091996 0.104521 0.118099 0.133907 0.151806 0.171442 0.194619
2026-01-04 0.071008 0.086929 0.105477 0.128673 0.156904 0.190151 0.232291
2026-01-11 0.057094 0.074858 0.096969 0.126495 0.164887 0.213125 0.278378
2026-01-18 0.047131 0.065946 0.090879 0.126302 0.175330 0.240812 0.334991
2026-01-25 0.037127 0.055286 0.080834 0.119351 0.175934 0.256034 0.378166
2026-02-01 0.029144 0.046066 0.071277 0.111503 0.174056 0.267659 0.418543
2026-02-08 0.023681 0.039624 0.064712 0.106962 0.176323 0.285732 0.471666
2026-02-15 0.019309 0.034120 0.058678 0.102229 0.177519 0.302403 0.525598
2026-02-22 0.016801 0.031267 0.056476 0.103429 0.188681 0.336984 0.614970
2026-03-01 0.013975 0.027342 0.051777 0.099492 0.190309 0.355686 0.680194
2026-03-08 0.011811 0.024243 0.048034 0.096639 0.193416 0.377509 0.754865
2026-03-15 0.010057 0.021615 0.044728 0.094040 0.196557 0.399887 0.834449
2026-03-22 0.008979 0.020213 0.043692 0.096014 0.209605 0.444527 0.968055
2026-03-29 0.007787 0.018341 0.041372 0.094925 0.216206 0.477476 1.083935
2026-04-05 0.006897 0.016974 0.039899 0.095443 0.226472 0.520063 1.228844
2026-04-12 0.006202 0.015924 0.038953 0.097010 0.239470 0.571018 1.402334
2026-04-19 0.005267 0.014101 0.035874 0.092955 0.238548 0.590256 1.505524
2026-04-26 0.004422 0.012332 0.032600 0.087796 0.233998 0.600218 1.588356
2026-05-03 0.003819 0.011079 0.030390 0.084955 0.234836 0.623622 1.709832
2026-05-10 0.003290 0.009918 0.028202 0.081750 0.234141 0.643093 1.824986
2026-05-17 0.003011 0.009416 0.027714 0.083166 0.246397 0.698858 2.049361
2026-05-24 0.002619 0.008495 0.025869 0.080339 0.246129 0.720633 2.182822
2026-05-31 0.002305 0.007747 0.024385 0.078296 0.247794 0.748211 2.338655